Note how prefacing the question with ‘why’ would change its focus if not its intent. I’ll return to this point at the end. I was originally going to write a post on time travel and UFOs, but I got sidetracked in my 'research'. In particular, I watched a talk given by famous sceptic, Michael Shermer (executive director of The Skeptics Society) and I remember reading his column in Scientific American in the 70s or 80s when I was a regular reader. He’s only slightly younger than me.
He gives a number of challenges in his talk, which are insightful in themselves, and I would gladly take them up. Basically, he’s making the point that when you challenge someone to explain why they believe something, they mostly can’t. He gives the examples of climate change and evolution, which he says are positions based on political beliefs rather than whether or not they understand the science behind them. I fall into this category, even though I’ve read books and accounts on these topics that most people wouldn’t bother, despite holding very passionate views on them.
Regarding evolutionary theory, I’d recommend Nick Lane’s excellent book, Life Ascending; The Ten Great Inventions of Evolution, which I’ve written about before. But I have another argument, which I’ve also presented before. Since Darwin and Wallace independently proposed their theories of evolution by natural selection over 160 years ago (1859 to be precise), we’ve made extraordinary discoveries that they could never have dreamed about, specifically in palaeontology and genetics. But here’s the thing: all the evidence discovered in the interim is not neutral; what has proven them right could just as readily have proven them wrong.
Regarding anthropomorphic climate change, I know of the role of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane, without knowing the details, and I know that ultimately it’s caused by the difference in heat that can escape our atmosphere and the heat that’s trapped, which can’t be measured directly. However, NASA has data that is publicly available on their website, which combines historical ice-core data with atmospheric data collected at Mauna Loa in Hawaii, and they show how the 2 sources of data are complementary and seamlessly connected.
But I have a subsidiary argument, which is that we need to trust the expertise of people who work in climatology, because the rest of us don’t have it. I learned this from spending over 4 decades in engineering, where I constantly relied on expertise by people in various fields from structural and civil engineering to architecture to mechanical and electrical engineering to process engineering to software design and automation. The problem is, with the internet, you can always find an ‘expert’ to provide the evidence that supports your view, which was very prominently exhibited during the not-so-recent COVID pandemic.
But, in the case of climate change, nearly all the arguments I’ve come across (that question it) are that it’s a hoax and/or a global conspiracy to keep climatologists in a job. I admit I don’t take those arguments seriously. However, I came across someone I knew who was a geologist and had spent a very successful career in mining, who put up a technical argument based on the tonnes of CO2 in the atmosphere and how, as a percentage, it completely contradicted the official reporting, including that provided by NASA. NASA’s data is in ppm (parts per million), and I pointed out that to convert the weight into ppm you had to allow for the molecular weight, which brings it back in line with the reported results. He knew I was right and he never responded. But as Shermer would have pointed out, he was on the Right of politics and I’m on the Left, which axiomatically creates the divide. I’ve long argued that climate change should never have been politicised. But having said that, you’ll find people on the other side of the argument who will say exactly the same thing.
Shermer added a couple of other challenges to demonstrate how much we don’t know or take for granted. He asked, ‘Can you explain how a zipper works?’ No, but I can draw a diagram. Engineers often draw a picture when explaining something. He also asked, ‘Can you draw a bicycle?’ and explained how many people get it wrong. Well, actually, I can. I stopped the video to prove it to myself, though I had to raise the handlebars when I finished it. Mind you, I started drawing before I could write.
However, Shermer made me question myself, which is why I’m writing this post. You see I write about topics where I’m not an expert, specifically physics and cosmology. I’m not even a proper philosopher – I don’t even have a degree let alone a PhD. My only defence is that I’m well read and pay attention to people who know a lot more than me, even if I disagree with them. And what I’ve found from watching panel discussions on YouTube is that even experts can’t agree.
To give an example, I watched a panel discussion between 2 prominent philosophers of science and a theoretical physicist: Tim Maudlin, Hilary Lawson and Sabine Hossenfelder respectively; on whether there are particles or fields. Tim Maudlin appeared to be the odd one out, yet I found I was more in agreement with him, which might just be a reflection of my own ignorance. Basically, he argued that the ‘field’ in quantum mechanics is the wavefunction of the particle which doesn’t even exist in spacetime (it exists in Hilbert space with potentially infinite dimensions) and can’t be measured. It’s possible that Lawson and Hossenfelder were talking about something different – I don’t know enough to comment – but Hossenfelder said you can have different mathematical models that describe the same phenomenon. Maudlin quoted John Bell as saying we effectively don’t have a particle until it creates a spot on a screen or a photographic emulsion. Which is why I think it exists in the past and the wavefunction exists in the future, compatible with Freeman Dyson’s viewpoint.
Speaking of Bell, I watched another video with Neil deGrasse Tyson talking to Jana Levin about entanglement which is one of the best discussions I’ve seen on the topic. The point that I think needs to be emphasised is that entanglement introduces instantaneity, which to me, only makes sense if there is a universal 'now'. Tyson focused the discussion on the ramifications for cryptology, where they both agreed that it can’t be used to send a message faster-than-light, though I do it in my science fiction (I readily acknowledge I break the known laws of physics in my sci-fi).
I think there is an inherent contradiction or conundrum in physics and cosmology that the Universe has an edge in time but not space, whereas relativity theory tells us there is only spacetime (they are not separate) and ‘now’ is a purely subjective experience – there is no universal, objective now. This has led to physicists arguing that our experience of time ‘flowing’ is an illusion. Paul Davies believes that this experience will ultimately be explained by neuroscience, not physics. Sabine Hossenfelder argues that there is no ‘now’ – it’s an illusion. Everyone knows that I greatly admire both of these scientists, both of whom know a lot more than me, yet I also think that postulating something that’s so outside our everyday experience, requires better explanations than we currently have. To me, it’s a sign that there is something wrong with our current theories rather than a sign that we all suffer from the same illusion that there is a past, present and future.
Getting back to Shermer and the role of expertise (though he doesn’t mention it, but I do): what I’ve found is that if you watch a discussion on a topic like evolution or climate change, especially when it’s combative, and you have someone present who is more knowledgeable and more experienced, they will invariably win the argument. And to extend that to my position, I imagine that if I was to have a discussion with Sabine, she would win hands down, and I would have to defer to her greater expertise, while not necessarily agreeing with her.
I once wrote a post where I critiqued her position on determinism and free will. It so happened I referenced this post to someone I met online, and to my surprise they said it was ‘very balanced’. I didn’t think it was balanced at all, given my prejudices, but I took it as a compliment.
So, addressing the question at the head of this post, the answer is, No. You shouldn’t simply believe what I say or argue; instead, you should do your own research and draw your own conclusions.
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